DogeWhistle: The Evidence

This website makes two fundamental arguments. The first of these is relatively uncontroversial and widely-reported (though we will treat it in far greater quantitative detail than available in the mainstream media). The second argument is controversial: extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and we have such evidence in-hand.

  • Argument 1 (Non-Controversial): Elon Musk’s social media activity (and, particularly, his posts on Twitter) are the primary driver of DogeCoin valuation, and have shifted the overall market capitalization of the cryptocurrency by billions of dollars. Considering that a single address holds over 28% of all DogeCoin in existence, Musk’s tweets are obviously a boon for the addresses’ owner.
  • Argument 2 (Controversial): Elon Musk is likely the owner of the DogeCoin address whose public key is DH5yaieqoZN36fDVciNyRueRGvGLR3mr7L and which has a balance of 36,812,358,782 DogeCoin (worth over $2.5 billion), and has turned massive profits by manipulating the coin’s pricing through Twitter. This address has received significant DogeCoin deposits (purchases) immediately before Musk tweeted about buying Doge. This address has also seen outflows correlated tightly with Musk’s tweets about selling Doge. Finally, DogeCoin flowed from this address (hereafter, the “Whale Address”) to the donation address of a small and relatively-unknown charity nearly exactly when Musk tweeted that he had donated to the aforementioned charity.  

We will explore these arguments in turn, and conclude with an assessment of both the risks and benefits inherent in DogeCoin investing. Note that this website is not a primer on DogeCoin, blockchain technology, or cryptocurrency in general. We assume a working understanding of both the economic and technical facets of DogeCoin, and we’ll be getting very technical very quickly in Argument 2 as we load the DogeCoin blockchain into a SQL database and use queries to “follow the money”. Further, this website is not investment advice – we won’t be presenting schemes on how to score Lambos by trading cryptocurrency. Finally, this website is not political or social commentary – we won’t be discussing what laws should be enacted to prevent market manipulation, which economic models and distributions-of-wealth are fair, or which regulations (if any) should be applied to DogeCoin or the crypto space writ large.

ARGUMENT 1: Elon Musk’s Tweets are a Major Driver of DogeCoin Valuation, and have Benefitted the Owner of a Single Address by Billions of Dollars

DogeCoin’s total supply is approximately 127 billion Doge at the time of this writing, with an additional 10,000 Doge mined (“printed”) per minute, or 14.4 million added per day. The “DogeChain” (DogeCoin’s ledger) consumes a massive ~41 GB due to high block frequency, and contains millions of addresses holding some amount of the cryptocurrency. Among these millions of addresses and gigabytes of pseudorandom gibberish is a truly remarkable public key:

    • DH5yaieqoZN36fDVciNyRueRGvGLR3mr7L

This key holds billions of dollars in Doge at current market prices; its balance can be viewed online with the help of any of several DogeChain explorers:

As this address holds over 28% of all Doge, when we consider the effects of Elon’s tweets on the DogeCoin market generally, it is instructive to consider their effects on the value of this specific Doge account. Forget about the money-printer going “brrrt”; when the doge-pumper goes “tweet”, and the DogeCoin market cap rises by $1 billion, this address must rise in value by $280 million, for example.

Correlation is not itself proof of causation. However, Musk’s tweets are extremely tightly-correlated with DogeCoin price movements (down to the minute and in some cases down to the second), and traders themselves have widely admitted purchasing Doge in response to the Muskrat’s social-media feed. Therefore, we may reasonably conclude that his tweets are causal with respect to price movements. Let us examine several of Musk’s tweets and their effects on DogeCoin price, market cap, and (most importantly) the dollar-value balance of the Whale address. All dates and times are expressed in UTC-08:00 Pacific Standard Time (Seattle time), as this is Musk’s own timezone; feel free to convert this to your personal time zone if you wish to follow along using your own charting tools. All Y-axis values are United States dollars or fractions thereof.

Tweet #1, “Doge”, 2021-02-03, 23:35 PST ($663 Million in Profit):

This tweet produced a substantial increase in DogeCoin price over the next 30 minutes (later Musk tweets tend to produce far sharper and more sudden spikes in DogeCoin value, perhaps because traders are watching his Twitter feed more closely than in early February). As we know the price before and after Musk’s tweet, and can look up the balance of the Whale address on that date, we can calculate Musk’s effect on the address-owner’s profit:

    • DogeCoin Price, 2021-02-03, 23:34 PST (1 Minute Before Musk Tweet #1): $0.040961
    • DogeCoin Price, 2021-02-04, 00:05 PST (30 Minutes After Musk Tweet #1): $0.060000
    • DogeCoin Price Increase due to Musk Tweet #1: +$0.019039 per Doge (+46.48%)
    • DogeCoin Market Cap Increase due to Musk Tweet #1: +$2,444,000,000 (+$2.444 Billion)
    • Balance of Whale Address, 2021-02-03, 23:35 PST (time of Musk Tweet #1): 34,812,349,511 Doge (34.8 GigaDoge)
    • Whale Address Profit Due to Musk Tweet #1: +$662,792,322 (+$662.8 Million)

Six hundred sixty-three million dollars of profit in thirty minutes from one tweet: not a bad day for the Whale address owner, all things considered. This would be far from the last time the address-owner reaped 9-figure gains thanks to the Elongated Muskrat’s tweets; in fact, the next “gift” came only two days later.

Tweet #2, “Much wow!”, 2021-02-05, 20:02 PST ($302 Million in Profit):

The DogeCoin community uses characteristic slang, and this tweet (“Much wow!”) was clearly a reference to DogeCoin. Traders understood that perfectly, and another enormous price surge resulted:

This time, the Doge-to-USD spike took only three minutes, as opposed to the ~30 minutes only two days prior. Let’s do the math as before:

    • DogeCoin Price, 2021-02-05, 20:01 PST (1 Minute Before Musk Tweet #2): $0.041650
    • DogeCoin Price, 2021-02-05, 20:04 PST (2 Minutes After Musk Tweet #2): $0.049858
    • DogeCoin Price Increase due to Musk Tweet #2: +$0.008208 per Doge (+19.71%)
    • DogeCoin Market Cap Increase due to Musk Tweet #2: +$1,054,000,000 (+$1.054 Billion)
    • Balance of Whale Address, 2021-02-04, 20:02 PST (time of Musk Tweet #2): 36,812,355,025 Doge (36.8 GigaDoge)
    • Whale Address Profit Due to Musk Tweet #2: +$302,155,810 (+$302.2 Million)

Musk’s second tweet was less effective at manipulating the market than his first in percentage terms, but the DogeCoin whale address received an influx of ~2 billion Doge between the first tweet and the second, meaning that it absorbed a larger share of market cap and hence a larger share of profit than previously. As a result, the address-owner netted more than $100 million in profit per minute during the three minutes following the Muskrat’s “doge-slang” tweet.

Tweet #3, “The future currency of Earth: Dogecoin to the Moooonn [sic]”, 2021-02-05, 20:51 PST ($166 Million in Profit):

Only 49 minutes later, Musk pumped DogeCoin again, this time with a survey which attracted more than 2.4 million responses (“votes”). The DogeCoin faithful were out in force, as ~71% of respondents predicted that the memetic cryptocurrency would become the standard reserve currency on planet Earth. Predicting the future is difficult – except when it comes to predicting how Elon Musk’s tweets will influence DogeCoin price. That’s an easy one:

Two Musk pumps visible on a single chart with 1-minute resolution: talk about getting value for one’s money. The statistics:

    • DogeCoin Price, 2021-02-05, 20:50 PST (1 Minute Before Musk Tweet #3): $0.046832
    • DogeCoin Price, 2021-02-05, 20:53 PST (2 Minutes After Musk Tweet #3): $0.051340
    • DogeCoin Price Increase due to Musk Tweet #3: +$0.004508 per Doge (+9.63%)
    • DogeCoin Market Cap Increase due to Musk Tweet #3: +$579,000,000 (+$579 Million)
    • Balance of Whale Address, 2021-02-05, 20:51 PST (time of Musk Tweet #3): 36,812,354,889 Doge (36.8 GigaDoge)
    • Whale Address Profit Due to Musk Tweet #3: +$165,950,095 (+$165.9 Million)

Tweet #4, “So … it’s finally come to this …” (Elon Musk / Gene Simmons / Snoop Dogg Image), 2021-02-06, 23:41 PST ($140 Million in Profit):

In the late evening of February 6th, 2021, the Muskrat tweeted the following image, a remix of the famous Lion King scene where Simba is presented before the Pridelands. In the image, Musk supports Simmons, who in turn supports Snoop Dogg, who in turn holds the Doge cryptocurrency:

You know what’s coming:

The outcome:

    • DogeCoin Price, 2021-02-06, 23:40 PST (1 Minute Before Musk Tweet #4): $0.059092
    • DogeCoin Price, 2021-02-06, 23:43 PST (1 Minute After Musk Tweet #4): $0.062885
    • DogeCoin Price Increase due to Musk Tweet #4: +$0.003793 per Doge (+6.42%)
    • DogeCoin Market Cap Increase due to Musk Tweet #4: +$487,000,000 (+$487 Million)
    • Balance of Whale Address, 2021-02-06, 23:41 PST (time of Musk Tweet #4): 36,812,355,602 Doge (36.8 GigaDoge)
    • Whale Address Profit Due to Musk Tweet #4: +$139,629,264 (+$139.6 Million)

At this point, the DogeCoin price chart becomes little more than a reflection of Elon Musk’s Twitter feed: little moves the price besides Musk’s tweets, and Musk tweets about DogeCoin and little else. The DogeCoin subreddit has now exceeded 1.1 million users, and is plastered with screenshots of the Muskrat’s tweets, further amplifying his effect on the price.

Tweet #5, “Bought some Dogecoin for lil X, so he can be a toddler hodler”, 2021-02-10, 07:08 PST ($403 Million in Profit):

Fate is a curious thing, and we truly live in interesting times. Let us pause and reflect on what the last three years have wrought:

Elon Musk was up early on the morning of Wednesday, February 10th, 2021. That’s how it is with newborns (which isn’t to say that fatherhood is anything but glorious; there’s no greater blessing). Musk tweeted about purchasing some DogeCoin for his son, and sent the price soaring:

The aftermath of this pump was as follows:

    • DogeCoin Price, 2021-02-10, 07:07 PST (1 Minute Before Musk Tweet #5): $0.069041
    • DogeCoin Price, 2021-02-10, 07:10 PST (2 Minutes After Musk Tweet #5): $0.079990
    • DogeCoin Price Increase due to Musk Tweet #5: +$0.010949 per Doge (+15.86%)
    • DogeCoin Market Cap Increase due to Musk Tweet #5: +$1,406,000,000 (+$1.406 Billion)
    • Balance of Whale Address, 2021-02-10, 07:08 PST (time of Musk Tweet #5): 36,812,357,324 Doge (36.8 GigaDoge)
    • Whale Address Profit Due to Musk Tweet #5: +$403,058,500 (+$403.1 Million)

Tweet #6, “Frodo was the underdoge / All thought he would fail / Himself most of all”, 2021-02-11, 01:08 PST ($127 Million in Profit):

DogeCoin, Tolkien, and the Elongated Muskrat: a match made in Heaven. This tweet came on the heels of SEC filings which revealed that Tesla Motors had purchased $1.5 billion in BitCoin, and the financial world was already abuzz with talk about cryptocurrencies as well as Tesla stock (which itself appreciated considerably as investors reacted favorably to the news). The image attached to Musk’s tweet on February 11th did not mention DogeCoin directly; rather, Musk engaged in some wordplay, substituting “underdog” with “underdoge“. In the cryptocurrency space, BitCoin, Ethereum, and a few other players dominate; DogeCoin may be an underdog, but is far from the underdog, considering that thousands of cryptocurrencies have been launched to date, and the majority are worthless or nearly so. The “underdog” space is crowded, to say the least. DogeCoin exchanges reacted to the tweet within seconds:

Debriefing this price spike, we see the following:

    • DogeCoin Price, 2021-02-11, 01:07 PST (1 Minute Before Musk Tweet #6): $0.072257
    • DogeCoin Price, 2021-02-10, 01:10 PST (2 Minutes After Musk Tweet #6): $0.075695
    • DogeCoin Price Increase due to Musk Tweet #6: +$0.003438 per Doge (+4.76%)
    • DogeCoin Market Cap Increase due to Musk Tweet #6: +$441,393,761 (+$441.4 Million)
    • Balance of Whale Address, 2021-02-10, 01:08 PST (time of Musk Tweet #6): 36,812,358,501 Doge (36.8 GigaDoge)
    • Whale Address Profit Due to Musk Tweet #6: +$126,560,888 (+$126.6 Million)

Tweet #7, “If major Dogecoin holders sell most of their coins, it will get my full support. Too much concentration is the only real issue imo.”, 2021-02-14, 15:25 PST ($265 Million in Profit):

The Elongated Muskrat gave a wonderful Valentine’s day present to the owner of the Whale address, again increasing DogeCoin’s price by dangling the promise of his “full support” for the cryptocurrency. We will place Musk’s tweet in the center of our chart chronologically on this occasion, to make the “pump-and-dump” aspect of his price manipulation abundantly clear. This tweet, like many of Musk’s tweets, seems to have had little enduring effect on DogeCoin’s price; the pump is offset by the dump. In fact, Musk’s shilling seems to have hurt DogeCoin’s market valuation in the long run (even if “the long run” is only four hours); the price two hours after the pump is substantially lower than the price two hours before the pump:

The results from this Valentine’s Day tweet are as follows:

    • DogeCoin Price, 2021-02-14, 15:24 PST (1 Minute Before Musk Tweet #7): $0.058164
    • DogeCoin Price, 2021-02-14, 15:28 PST (3 Minutes After Musk Tweet #7): $0.065357
    • DogeCoin Price Increase due to Musk Tweet #7: +$0.007193 per Doge (+12.37%)
    • DogeCoin Market Cap Increase due to Musk Tweet #7: +$923,486,133 (+$923.5 Million)
    • Balance of Whale Address, 2021-02-14, 15:25 PST (time of Musk Tweet #7): 36,812,359,544 Doge (36.8 GigaDoge)
    • Whale Address Profit Due to Musk Tweet #7: +$264,791,302 (+$264.8 Million)

Tweet #8, “Literally” (Image of a Shiba Inu Canine Cosmonaut Planting a DogeCoin Flag on Earth’s Moon), 2021-02-24, 05:00 PST ($250 Million in Profit):

This is the last tweet we will analyze in this section; we have skipped over numerous others, as the story is much the same each time. You can’t teach an old doge new pumps, it seems:

The results:

    • DogeCoin Price, 2021-02-24, 04:59 PST (1 Minute Before Musk Tweet #8): $0.052211
    • DogeCoin Price, 2021-02-24, 05:03 PST (3 Minutes After Musk Tweet #8): $0.058996
    • DogeCoin Price Increase due to Musk Tweet #8: +$0.006785 per Doge (+13.00%)
    • DogeCoin Market Cap Increase due to Musk Tweet #8: +$871,104,325 (+$871.1 Million)
    • Balance of Whale Address, 2021-02-24, 05:00 PST (time of Musk Tweet #8): 36,812,359,544 Doge (36.8 GigaDoge)
    • Whale Address Profit Due to Musk Tweet #8: +$249,771,859 (+$249.8 Million)

ARGUMENT 2: Elon Musk is the Owner of Over 28% of All DogeCoin, Profiting Over $2 Billion By Promoting the Cryptocurrency

It is abundantly evident that the Elongated Muskrat has tremendous influence over the price of DogeCoin, with his tweets shifting its market capitalization by billions of dollars in the span of a few minutes. On several occasions, he has done so multiple times per day. Musk shows no signs of stopping this behavior; it is likely that, by the time you are reading this, he will have issued additional tweets which will have rocked the market. The situation is evolving rapidly, and no resource can be perfectly up-to-date. Let us consider the DogeCoin “adventure” from an economic point of view, and one that is applicable to all financial assets:

Knowing in which direction a market will move is good.

Knowing in which direction and when a market will move is better.

Controlling the direction and timing of market movements is best.

Musk’s ability to shift DogeCoin’s price by substantial amounts and in a predictable way is extremely valuable: a sufficiently-capitalized trader could make millions in minutes by purchasing Doge right before Musk tweets and then selling it just as the price begins to plummet and the “dump” phase begins. Such gains could be even greater if financial derivatives (futures, leveraged calls and puts, etc.) were used, and such derivatives are available; exchanges such as Binance and BitMex offer leverage up to 125x, which could turn a 30% Elon pump into a guarantee of 3,750% profit.

Achieving such profits would require foreknowledge of Elon Musk’s tweets, and our search for the owner of the Whale Wallet begins with the one person guaranteed to have such foreknowledge: Elon Musk himself.

Argument 2, Part A – The Whale Wallet Does Not Belong to an Exchange, Early Miner, DogeCoin Developer, or Financial Entity:

The DogeCoin Whale Wallet is exceptional for holding ~29% of total Doge (BitCoin is far less concentrated, with the largest wallet containing only ~0.76% of BTC in existence). That said, large wallets aren’t altogether unheard-of. Typically, they are held by financial institutions (such as cryptocurrency exchanges or exchange-traded funds), and if personally-owned, are usually in the control of early miners or cryptocurrency developers. It is useful to apply the process-of-elimination to show that the DogeCoin Whale address is unlikely to belong to any of the “usual suspects”:

    • The Whale Address does not belong to any cryptocurrency exchange. First, it is far too large; even Binance, the highest-liquidity exchange for DogeCoin, controls about 20% of all Doge in existence (of which 13.8% is in Doge-Tether pairs, 3.4% is in Doge-BTC pairs, 0.6% is in Doge-USD pairs, 0.42% is in Doge-Euro pairs, and the remainder is in pairs with small cryptocurrencies and fiat currencies with no pair contributing more than 1%). In fact, even the top 100 exchanges combined do not have holdings anywhere near as large as the Whale Wallet. See CoinMarketCap’s study on DogeCoin exchange liquidity. Second, exchanges rarely put all their Doge (or anything else) in one basket (or address), for obvious reasons. Third, the Whale Address is relatively new; it was first funded on 2019-02-05, long after major exchanges added support for Doge. Fourth, the Address has relatively low activity levels, averaging about 215 transactions per year (incoming and outgoing combined); a typical exchange using a single hot wallet for all DogeCoin storage would process orders-of-magnitude more transactions in a similar period.
    • The Whale Address does not belong to any online wallet service. Storing DogeCoin (or any cryptocurrency) in an online wallet is the pinnacle of idiocy, but as you may have noticed, idiots do exist. That said, even the most popular online wallet (DogeChain.Info) has nowhere near as much DogeCoin in all of its users’ accounts combined as exists in the Whale Address. Further, online wallets use keys segregated by user for storage, rather than consolidating multiple customers’ coins in a single wallet (again, for obvious reasons). See DogeChain’s key-storage policies.
    • The Whale Address does not belong to an ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund), Mercantile Exchange, or similar financial entity. This is easy: there are no DogeCoin ETFs or similar. Good luck trying to convince the SEC to license your DogeCoin 401(k) retirement plan.
    • The Whale Address does not belong to an early miner and/or DogeCoin developer. The earliest of early-adopters will sometimes accumulate substantial amounts of cryptocurrency, typically through mining when difficulty is low, buying when prices are cheap, or a combination of the two. Indeed, most cryptocurrencies begin with low mining difficulty and low to negligible valuation; BitCoin itself did. However, the majority of DogeCoins in the address-of-interest were mined (relatively) recently. Following transactions back to their genesis blocks and studying mining rewards and historical difficulty levels shows that, even with extremely optimistic assumptions about mining rig efficiency and electricity cost, the DogeCoin in the Whale Wallet cost tens of millions of dollars of electricity to produce (in reality, the electrical cost was probably in the low-hundreds of millions of dollars). Like the Address itself, the Doge within are too new to be associated with early miners or developers.
    • The Whale Address does not belong to RobinHood. This stockbrokerage and options marketplace is closely associated with WallStreetBets (despite never being particularly popular with its own userbase). RobinHood offers DogeCoin for purchase, and likely holds some DogeCoin itself. However, it is absolutely neither the owner nor the controller of the Whale Wallet. First of all, RobinHood does not offer withdrawal of DogeCoin, nor does it make users’ private (or even public) keys available to them. This suggests that RobinHood is trading primarily or exclusively in “paper DogeCoin”, and that it owns little or none of the underlying asset; such practice is standard for brokerages, whether the asset is stocks or gold or cryptocurrency. It is precisely this lack of hard assets that motivated RobinHood to halt trading of GameStock ($GME) during a Reddit-induced short squeeze. Secondly, and more importantly, the value of the Whale Wallet is far too large to be owned by such a relatively-small company. RobinHood is an American LLC (Limited Liability Corporation), and as a result, its financial records are not available for public scrutiny to the degree that would be legally required if it was a public corporation. However, we do know that it has received a total of $953 million in capital funding ($110 million from Yuri Milner in April 2017; $363 million from DST Global in May 2018; $280 million in May 2020 from Sequoia Capital; $200 million from D1 Capital Partners in August 2020). Its total market valuation is approximately $8.3 billion. If RobinHood owned the Whale Wallet, it would own DogeCoin valued at approximately 2.7 times the entire amount invested into the company over the past 7 years. Further, this would imply that ~31% of the company’s entire market value is due to its DogeCoin holdings. While we can’t inspect RobinHood’s inner financial workings, its investors can (and do); anyone who has gone through the funding process knowns that prospective investors are exceedingly diligent regarding this. No major investor is going to pour money into a start-up so that it can buy $2.6 billion dollars in DogeCoin. The theory that RobinHood holds the Whale Wallet, while popular among Reddit’s DogeCoin enthusiasts, is exceedingly implausible; it reflects deep misunderstandings about the nature of brokerages, the size of RobinHood, and the relationships between pre-IPO investors and start-up companies. Finally, the Whale Wallet’s balance has not significantly changed since 2021-02-04. If RobinHood does hold DogeCoin on the behalf of its customers, it must rapidly reduce its holdings when users sell, and it must rapidly increase its holdings when users buy. If a RobinHood customer sells $1M in DogeCoin and RobinHood does not itself sell off that amount of Doge, then RobinHood will take a loss if that DogeCoin falls in value. Similarly, if a customer buys DogeCoin and RobinHood does not immediately buy a matching amount, it will take a loss if Doge rises in value. An exchange which fails to maintain its own ownership of DogeCoin as equal to the sum-of-positions of its customers is effectively “inheriting” its customers’ positions, transferring enormous amounts of risk from its customers to itself; exchanges avoid doing so at all cost. To claim that RobinHood owns the whale wallet is to claim that either (1) RobinHood users have not significantly changed their DogeCoin positions since February 4th of 2021; or (2) RobinHood is risking billions of dollars of its own money investing in DogeCoin. Neither is plausible.

      This isn’t a defense of RobinHood. DogeCoiners are correct in urging RobinHood users to sell any DogeCoin they own on the platform and repurchase it on a real exchange such as Binance. DogeCoiners are correct in warning about the dangers of uncontrolled key custody. The heart of their argument (“RobinHood may not, and likely does not, have anywhere near enough DogeCoin to cover the purchases made on its platform”) is an excellent reason to avoid RobinHood, but it is also the reason why RobinHood cannot be the controller of the Whale Wallet. 

The story of the Whale Address is the story of a “lucky” investment (or, more likely, the story of a man who “made” his own luck by promoting a cryptocurrency he had invested heavily in). Regardless, luck or skill, foul or fair, this is still the story of an investment: as we will see in Part B, the address-owner turned 406 million dollars into 2.6 billion dollars, and while that’s a damn good deal, it still implies that the owner was very wealthy prior to investing in DogeCoin; few of us have access to anywhere near that much capital. This investment was a carefully-calculated financial operation; it was not a case of someone who mined DogeCoin back in 2013 dusting off an old hard drive and discovering himself to be a multi-billionaire. The fact that the Whale Address’ owner had at least $406,000,000 back in 2019 does not in and of itself implicate the Muskrat, but it certainly narrows down the possibilities: Very few people could afford such an investment, and of those who could, most wouldn’t be interested.

Argument 2, Part B – Elon Musk’s Tweets about Buying Doge Correspond to Whale-Wallet Deposits; Elon Musk’s Tweets about Selling Doge Correspond to Whale-Wallet Withdrawals:

In Argument 1, we examined correlations between the Elongated Muskrat’s Twitter activity and DogeCoin price movements. In this section, we will instead study connections between his tweets and transactions connected to the Whale Address. To do so, it is convenient to extract records of Whale Wallet transactions from the blockchain, pull them into Excel, and manipulate them to produce a human-readable ledger. You may download the ledger here and follow along:

If needed, you may update the Ledger with raw data from BitInfoCharts.

This file contains the following useful columns:

    • Time: Shows the exact timestamp of each transaction, in UTC, with 1-second granularity.
    • Block: Returns the sequential block number in which each transaction occurred. Multiple transactions can occur within the same block. 
    • Excel-Readable Date: Returns the date in UTC (GMT±00:00), rounded down to the nearest whole date. Feel free to adjust the formula if you wish to convert the ledger to your favorite time zone. 
    • Day of Week: Returns the day of week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, or Sunday).
    • Deposit (Withdrawal) on Date, DOGE: Returns the amount of DogeCoin transacted on a particular date, with positive numbers indicating transactions inbound to the Whale wallet, and negative numbers indicating outbound transfers. 
    • Deposit (Withdrawal) on Date, USD Equivalent on Date: Returns the dollar value of DogeCoin transacted on a particular date, using the prevailing exchange rate at the time of the transaction, as reported by CoinBase.
    • Deposit (Withdrawal) on Date, USD Equivalent at Latest Price: Returns the current (based on February 2021) dollar value of DogeCoin transacted on a particular date. You will need to update this formula if you wish to do your own analysis extending beyond 2021-02-15. Probably you can find a more elegant solution than that used here; connect to some API and pull the data automatically, knock yourself out.  
    • Price per DOGE on Date: Displays the price of 1 DogeCoin, in United States Dollars, corresponding to the date and time of a transaction. Granularity is 1/100th of 1 cent ($0.0001); for critical purposes when examining periods of low DogeCoin price, you may want to increase granularity to 1/1,000th of 1 cent ($0.00001) or beyond.
    • Balance on Date, DOGE: Displays the balance of the Whale Wallet, in DogeCoin, at the time of a transaction. Granularity is 10 NanoDoge. 
    • Balance on Date, USD at Transaction Time: Displays the balance of the Whale Wallet, in USD, using the prevailing exchange rate at the time and date of that transaction. 
    • Costs Accrued by Date if Purchased at Market Price on Date: Returns a running total (including the row-transaction and all previous transactions), in USD, reflecting the total expenditure needed to purchase the DogeCoin present in the Whale Wallet. This calculation assumes that all inbound Doge were purchased at the price prevailing at the exact instant they were deposited, and is therefore approximate, but should represent a reasonable approximation, especially in periods of low volatility.
    • Unrealized Profit (Assumes Account Liquidated at Market Price on Date): For each date and time, returns the total profit (in USD) that the Whale Wallet’s owner would realize if the wallet’s entire contents were sold at then-prevailing market prices. This profit is equal to the current market value of the wallet, minus the “cost accrued by date if purchased at market price on date” (see above). 
    • Realized Profit (Investment): For each date and time, returns the total profit to date (i.e., inclusive of all previous timestamps) under the assumption that all deposits represent purchases of DogeCoin at then-prevailing market prices, and that all withdrawals likewise represent sale of DogeCoin at then-prevailing prices. When this value is negative, as it is for most recent dates, it indicates that there has been a net investment into the Whale Wallet, and that the majority of its profits are as-yet unrealized. A negative value here does not imply that the account is “underwater”, and indeed the situation is quite the opposite for recent dates.     

Now that we have our ledger ready in Excel, we can chart start charting and plot changes in wallet balance in relation to known statements from Musk. First, we notice a major increase in the Whale Wallet’s balance right as Musk issues his first DogeCoin-related tweet:

Next, we see a reference to selling Doge (the only reference Musk has ever made about selling the cryptocurrency) which correlates perfectly with an outflow from the Whale Wallet. In fact, this tweet exactly matches up with the most significant single-day outflow seen from the Address to-date:

In late December of 2020, the DogeCoin market started heating up; it’s time to re-scale our X-axis and zoom in on the date range 2020-10-29 to 2021-02-15 (inclusive). We will also use orange shading to show the Whale Wallet’s USD-equivalent value over time. Note that this value is affected both by transactions and price fluctuations. Elon Musk clearly has DogeCoin on his mind as the Whale Wallet receives another major deposit:

The following charts are scaled to focus only on February 2021 to-date. Elon Musk began tweeting more actively than ever during this period; simultaneously, the Whale address experienced a spike in transaction activity as its owner invested ever-more heavily and ever-more frequently in DogeCoin:

The final tweets we will examine both came on February 4th, the date of the last (significant) transfer of DogeCoin into the Whale wallet:

Argument 2, Part C – Elon Musk Tweeted that He Donated DogeCoin to the Charity “GiveDirectly” on 2021-02-10; DogeCoin Originating in the Whale Wallet Arrived in GiveDirectly’s Wallet on the Same Day:

We’ve saved the best for last.

On 2021-02-10 at 11:53 PST, the Elongated Muskrat replied to a tweet by Vitalik Buterin (the head developer of Ethereum). Musk announced that he had donated DogeCoin to “GiveDirectly”, a charity which provides funding for COVID-19 relief in nations including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, Liberia, Malawi, Rwanda, Togo, and the United States:

GiveDirectly published its donation address on Twitter, as highlighted in the image above. We now have our task cut out for us, boys: assuming Elon Musk did indeed donate (and there is little reason to believe otherwise), we will have strong evidence that Musk owns the Whale Address if we can find a transaction path which originates from the Whale Address and terminates in the Donation Address (DJbsZJVxMaRqY1tZXQDk8wZVjU5cJdxKKw) on or about 2020-02-10.

Excel has served us well thus far, but it can’t handle the 41 GB DogeCoin blockchain (“DogeChain”). It’s time to break out the big guns; we’re in Big Data (“Big Doge”?) territory now. We will load the DogeChain into a SQL (Structured Query Language) database, using a BigQuery Public Data Connector. The schema is as follows. Note that this schema is semi-generic, and uses the term “bitcoin” in certain cases as the DogeChain structure is broadly similar to BitCoin’s blockchain:

Owners of high-value cryptocurrency addresses are typically cautious, and avoid direct transactions which might reveal their identities. Any sane man controlling 2.6 billion dollars in DogeCoin would be rightfully careful to cover his tracks, lest he be identified and become the victim of the world’s first DogeCoin-motivated armed robbery (or, even worse, IRS audit). That’s not how most of us hope to get our personal Wikipedia entries. Therefore, we do not expect to see a direct transaction from the Whale Address to the Donation Address; we will need to “follow the Doge” through multiple transactions in order to trace the flow of money.

Our strategy is simple in principle: Begin with the Whale Address, and check all outgoing transactions to see if any flow directly to the Donation Address. If no such transactions are found, check all outgoing transactions from addresses that themselves received DogeCoin from the Whale (i.e., check for two-step transactions) to see if they terminate in the Donation Address. If not, go a step further, checking for three-step transactions, and so-on. Eventually, we will either find a transaction chain proving that DogeCoin has flowed from the Whale Address to the Donation Address, or we will reach the end of the DogeChain empty-handed, at which point we can conclude that no such transaction took place, and hence that Musk is not the owner of the Whale Wallet.

Single-Step Transactions: We have annotated this first SQL query. Aside from some minor annoyances related to table-flattening and indexing, it is relatively straightforward:

The output looks like this:

We see that, although the Whale Address has 20 total outgoing transactions in its roughly 2-year history, every one of these transactions has gone to the same recipient address, namely DQA5h47M4NdTt2mKDj4nP2VNZWczZi42RY (hereafter, “Address #2”). This is not the address of the GiveDirectly charity, so we proceed to the next stage in our search.

Two-Step Transactions: Now, we will trace transactions sent from Address #2. We could do this by hardcoding that address in our SQL query (in the place of the Whale address from the previous step), but that is an inelegant solution, and not particularly sustainable in that we will soon need to examine transactions sent from multiple addresses, and nobody wants a SELECT IN ( ) statement with thousands of arguments. Therefore, we will slightly modify the query for single-step transactions such that only one column (flattened_outputs) is produced, and make it a subquery where its output feeds into the flattened_inputs filter of an outer query. Since we are only referencing the subquery once, we don’t need to name it explicitly:

Now we have 1,483 unique outgoing transactions, each of which gives rise to an “Address #3”. Note that we are now referring to a tranche of DogeCoin addresses, not a single address:

No Address #3 matches to the GiveDirectly DogeCoin wallet public key, so we will go a step deeper.

Three-Step Transactions: We modify the two-step query to output only the flattened_outputs column, and feed it into yet another query, nesting two levels deep:

The results are:

With 7,944 values for Address #4, we still see no matches. We continue with the next step.

Four-Step Transactions: We have a collision. With our queries nested four layers deep, we find a transaction chain that originates from the Whale Address and terminates in the Donation Address. The query below is the key; the fact that it returns results is proof that DogeCoin flowed from the Whale Address to GiveDirectly’s wallet:

The output from SQL is as follows, and reflects the final step by which DogeCoin from the Whale Wallet entered the Donation Wallet:

Let’s take a peek at those timestamps. The donations to GiveDirectly occurred early in the morning of 2021-02-11, at 5:03 and 6:58. However, these timestamps are UTC. Since America was not on Daylight Savings Time on this date, PST was 8 hours behind UTC, which means that (from the perspective of Musk’s local timezone in Los Angeles), these transactions were actually processed on 2021-02-10, which just so happens to be the day when Musk tweeted about donating to the exact address shown in the far-right column above.

We can now derive the exact transaction chain which sent DogeCoin from the Whale Wallet to the GiveDirectly donation address. We will provide transaction IDs so that you, dear reader, can verify the results for yourself. It is impossible to find such chains with publicly-available tools, but easy to verify them (there seems to be an analogy to one-way cryptographic functions here).

The Transaction Chain:

Step 1: DogeCoin flows from the Whale Address to Intermediate Address #1

Note: This set of transfers involves 20 total transactions; below, we show only a single representative transaction. You may download all transactions for this step (XLSX) using the link below this block, and check them on BitQuery or your preferred DogeChain-analysis tool.

Transaction Hash: 3cdf109ae7265608c2f91e833a682aac06601e6fe5a0155255ffc8a98a772a21
Origin Address: DH5yaieqoZN36fDVciNyRueRGvGLR3mr7L [Whale Wallet]
Destination Address: DQA5h47M4NdTt2mKDj4nP2VNZWczZi42RY [Intermediate Address #1]
Amount: 3,560 Doge
Timestamp (UTC): 2019-03-22 01:32:11
View This Transaction on BitQuery


Step 2: DogeCoin flows from Intermediate Address #1 to Intermediate Addresses #2A and #2B

Note: This set of transfers involves 318 total transactions; below, we show only a single representative transaction for each of the two destination addresses. You may download all transactions for this step (XLSX) using the link below this block.

Transaction Hash: e8fc9c76b678ac3cd50978fb4b14684c41e018f3dbdd23e3ed9e79e36ea17f98
Origin Address: DQA5h47M4NdTt2mKDj4nP2VNZWczZi42RY [Intermediate Address #1]
Destination Address: DGhUXrrR2VRVfTjKE2fDsnzBrzmaKmTsBw [Intermediate Address #2A]
Amount: 1,000 Doge
Timestamp (UTC): 2018-10-26 19:21:20
View This Transaction on BitQuery

Transaction Hash: 2404bf7988b001ff0dc055253521fb2ba54b8529cff77a4f9e716522e11f36e4
Origin Address: DQA5h47M4NdTt2mKDj4nP2VNZWczZi42RY [Intermediate Address #1]
Destination Address: DJCx14ZjJDVFUWDS3vCozjBgsShUrivgh5 [Intermediate Address #2B]
Amount: 604,747,507 Doge
Timestamp (UTC): 2020-07-10 16:30:39
View This Transaction on BitQuery


Step 3: DogeCoin flows from Intermediate Addresses #2A and #2B to Intermediate Address #3

Note: This set of transfers involves 960 total transactions; below, we show only a single recent transaction for each of the two origin addresses. You may download all transactions for this step (XLSX) using the link below this block.

Transaction Hash: 800f13d8cf5e114f85b3891c48b91359b6951e737735a7393a7ab285dcfcba0c
Origin Address: DGhUXrrR2VRVfTjKE2fDsnzBrzmaKmTsBw [Intermediate Address #2A]
Destination Address: D9GqmkGCpgtnXP7xMD78v9xfqeDkqBZBMT [Intermediate Address #3]
Amount: 309,947 Doge
Timestamp (UTC): 2020-07-07 03:29:44
View This Transaction on BitQuery

Transaction Hash: 4f5f656a22ca636232453deab6f0004a8db627e323e449e9c180155ce11264eb
Origin Address: DJCx14ZjJDVFUWDS3vCozjBgsShUrivgh5 [Intermediate Address #2B]
Destination Address: D9GqmkGCpgtnXP7xMD78v9xfqeDkqBZBMT [Intermediate Address #3]
Amount: 2,829,710 Doge
Timestamp (UTC): 2021-02-08 03:01:40
View This Transaction on BitQuery


Step 4: DogeCoin flows from Intermediate Address #3 to the GiveDirectly Donation Address:

In two transactions, we see the final step by which DogeCoin originating in the Whale Wallet enters the Donation Wallet on the exact day the Elongated Muskrat tweeted about making such a donation.

Transaction Hash: 928593f49999db4a4d73db7388de397a650d9e7692970802ec0c41c1c09a9c22
Origin Address: D9GqmkGCpgtnXP7xMD78v9xfqeDkqBZBMT [Intermediate Address #3]
Destination Address: DJbsZJVxMaRqY1tZXQDk8wZVjU5cJdxKKw [GiveDirectly Wallet]
Amount (Less Change): 21 Doge
Timestamp (UTC): 2021-02-11 06:58:15
View This Transaction on BitQuery


Transaction Hash: 6f682782e64ac22430b3ccf908a32f7ebb8f0a85ccbc39159ba35c625c08bfd9
Origin Address: D9GqmkGCpgtnXP7xMD78v9xfqeDkqBZBMT [Intermediate Address #3]
Destination Address: DJbsZJVxMaRqY1tZXQDk8wZVjU5cJdxKKw [GiveDirectly Wallet]
Amount (Less Change): 8,825 Doge
Timestamp (UTC): 2021-02-11 05:02:31
View This Transaction on BitQuery

We can visualize the flow as follows:

Argument 2, Part D – Incidental Findings:

In this section, we will present some incidental findings. None of these strongly tie Musk to the Whale Wallet, but they are consistent with the theory regarding his ownership. These considerations are not central to our argument, but worth mentioning.

The Whale Wallet Owner was Wealthy and Invested $300-$400 Million Into DogeCoin: By examining the transaction ledger (available for download; see Argument #2, Part B), we see that whoever or whatever entity purchased DogeCoin and deposited it into the wallet-of-interest spent hundreds of millions of dollars to acquire the cryptocurrency. Much of the Doge in the wallet was mined recently (and under high difficulty), and its cost-to-mine was itself in the high-tens to low-hundreds of millions of dollars. Large-scale miners will not (and cannot afford to) operate at a loss, and so electrical and equipment costs place a lower bound on the cost of acquiring this Doge. Elon Musk is, of course, not the only person with $300,000,000 to spare for a DogeCoin investment, but he is one of relatively few; IRS (Internal Revenue Service) data suggests that about 8,000 Americans have net worths sufficient to have made such a purchase. Eight thousand people is still a large crowd, but much smaller than the 350+ million people living in America. Very few people could afford so much DogeCoin (even at historically-low prices), and of the few who could afford it, very few would be interested in such an investment. Elon Musk is among the few who could have bought this trove of DogeCoin, and his enthusiasm with cryptocurrency and peculiar investments places him among the even-fewer who might want to do so.

Elon Musk has Already been Sanctioned for Manipulating Stock Prices via Twitter: Past guilt is not proof of present guilt in-and-of-itself. That said, experience shows that men who have committed specific wrongdoings in the past are far more likely than the general public to commit similar wrongdoings in the future. On August 7th of 2018, Elon Musk tweeted about taking Tesla private at $420 per share, despite having no actual agreements in place to do so. This greatly inflated his company’s stock price, and Musk was sanctioned by the Securities and Exchange Commission for this; he was personally fined $20 million, and was ejected from Tesla’s Board of Directors for three years:

See details about these sanctions from the SEC. Keep the promised stock price ($420/share) in mind; we haven’t seen the last of this number.

420.69: The Whale Address has a relatively low transaction count (having been involved in only 475 transactions in its history, of which 459 were incoming and 16 were outgoing). Considering this, a statistically-improbable number of these transactions involve quantities of DogeCoin that contain one or both of the following digit sequences:

    • “69” (the sex number)
    • “420” (the weed number)

We can find these transactions with a carefully-crafted SQL query:

DogeCoin transactions (like BitCoin transactions) have eight decimal places. It is therefore not at all unexpected that, out of 475 transactions, a few would happen to contain sequences like “…420…”, “…4.20…”, “…69….”, etc. by mere chance. For example, there’s nothing particularly remarkable about transaction hash 0414705e806027cbf1523e7b2311c4bf798012c4aebc5b67918ffbf400a0dca1, which transferred 30,969.74 DogeCoin into the Whale Wallet. However, we find that, out of 475 total transactions:

    • 19 transactions are for exactly 69 DogeCoin. This is approximately 1 out of every 25 Whale Wallet transactions, and is clearly not a coincidence. Consider if transactions were random in their amounts: pick 475 random numbers between 0 and 4,075,091,883 (the largest transaction value), and pick numbers out to eight decimal places. Your chance of picking the exact number “69.00000000” just once in 475 tries is approximately 1 in 1015. Your chance of doing so 19 times is approximately 1 in 10266, a number also known as “zero”. Even if we assume that transactions must be for integral numbers of Doge, the chance of picking “69” so many times by random chance is still only about 1 in 10171.
    • 25 transactions are for some base-10 multiple of 69 DogeCoin (for example: 6.9 Doge, 690 Doge, or 0.69 Doge). This is approximately one out of every 19 transactions, or more than 5% of the total. 
    • There are three transactions for exactly 6.9696969 DogeCoin (View Transaction 1; View Transaction 2, View Transaction 3). There is also a transaction for exactly 69.9696969 DogeCoin (View Transaction 4). Scroll down to the “Details” pane and look in the right-hand column on the DogeExplorer website to see these values. 
    • There are three transactions for 420 DogeCoin or some base-10 multiple thereof (ex. 4.20 Doge, 4,200 Doge, etc.). View Transaction 1; View Transaction 2; View Transaction 3
    • There is a transaction for exactly 69.42069420 DogeCoin (View), and another for 420.69 DogeCoin (View).   

For your convenience, a full record of all sex-number and weed-number transactions involving the Whale Wallet are available for download (Excel file; XLSX):

Taken together, these transactions suggest that the owner of the Whale Wallet is fascinated by the numbers “69” and “420”. If we put our heads together, perhaps we can think of such a person:

Elon Musk’s Tweets Indicate Ownership of DogeCoin in a Private Wallet: On several occasions, Elon has announced or implied that he owns DogeCoin; see Argument 2, Part B. Further, he has (correctly) advocated for self-custody of cryptocurrency keys. This implies that the Muskrat controls at least some DogeCoin in a private wallet.

The Venn Diagram: In consideration of these incidental findings, we can search for the Whale Wallet owner at the nexus (center) of the following diagram:

FINAL THOUGHTS

Could the findings presented above – which suggest that the Elongated Muskrat is the owner of the Whale Wallet – be nothing more than a series of coincidences? Certainly.

It could be a coincidence that Musk tweeted about buying DogeCoin right as the Wallet received deposits. 

It could be a coincidence that Musk tweeted about selling DogeCoin right as the wallet owner sold off a portion of its balance.

It could be a coincidence that both Elon Musk and the wallet’s owner are fascinated by the numbers “420” and “69”.

It could be a coincidence that Musk happens to be one of very few people both wealthy enough and eccentric enough to invest hundreds of millions of dollars into DogeCoin.

It could be a coincidence that Musk continually pumps DogeCoin via Twitter (much as he once pumped Tesla stock before being hauled into court).

It could be a coincidence that DogeCoin from the whale wallet ended up in the custody of a small and obscure charity on the exact day that Musk tweeted about donating to that charity. 

The question we should be asking is not “Can we prove beyond a reasonable doubt that Elon Musk owns $2.6 billion in DogeCoin?”, but rather: “Does it even matter who controls the Whale Wallet?“. It is indisputable that the wealthiest man on Earth is aggressively manipulating cryptocurrency prices – does it matter if he is doing so for his own benefit versus for the benefit of some other multi-billionaire? To the everyday DogeCoin investor: no – it doesn’t matter.

The extreme centralization of DogeCoin, with one person controlling nearly a third of the total supply, should be of grave concern to investors regardless of who that controller is. First, it is the zenith of irony that so many small-time DogeCoin investors – many of whom are motivated by the WallStreetBets zeitgeist and wish to strike a financial blow against the filthy-rich and powerful – are primarily helping someone else turn $400 million into $2.6 billion as they purchase Doge and drive prices up. Second, the owner of the Whale Wallet has a tremendous monetary incentive to sell DogeCoin en masse, and controls more than enough of the total supply to be able to instantly crash the market to near-zero, a catastrophe from which DogeCoin would likely never recover. Even a transfer from the Whale Wallet to an exchange (without any actual sale) could cause a market panic in anticipation of large-scale selling, which would render every recent DogeCoin buyer’s investment permanently worthless in a matter of milliseconds. DogeCoin is, in reality, a PyraMusk* scheme perpetually on the brink of collapse.

*Yes, technically DogeCoin resembles a Ponzi Scheme more closely than a Pyramid Scheme, but that doesn’t rhyme as well. Grant an iota of artistic license, if you will.

Elon Musk and others have argued for DogeCoin’s intrinsic value, but such arguments are weak. They are also disingenuous, especially when coming from the Muskrat himself, who is a successful businessman; he should (and probably does) know better.

In broad strokes, the central argument for DogeCoin is similar to arguments made against BitCoin and cryptocurrency in general. These arguments were particularly common in the early years of BlockChain technology, and primarily originated from the mainstream financial industry. This line of argument attacks the concept of cryptocurrency scarcity, and goes something like this:

“Yes, BitCoin is ‘scarce’ in that it has a fixed supply of 21 million units. And, indeed, BitCoin is immune to counterfeiting, much like gold. However, there is nothing stopping someone from copying BitCoin’s code and launching an identical or similar cryptocurrency network. Therefore, while the cryptocurrency space in general may have value, any specific cryptocurrency is likely to become worthless as ever-more coins and tokens compete for market share. Imagine if the mechanics of BitCoin were applied to cucumbers. In this scenario, cucumbers would indeed become scarce with a hard cap on the worldwide supply as it is impossible to ever grow more than 21 million of them, but this doesn’t guarantee that cucumbers will appreciate in value: there are plenty of other things to eat, and just as many foods can supply calories, so too many different cryptocurrencies could offer what BitCoin offers.”

Despite ringing ever-falser over time in the light of actual market trends, this argument is relatively convincing at first glance. It is wrong for the same reason the “#LearnToCode” meme is wrong: even if America can train 200,000 laid-off steel mill workers and 400,000 unemployed truck drivers to become rock-star software developers, this doesn’t mean we will suddenly see five Amazons or ten TheFaceBooks or a hundred Googles spring up. We do not have only one large search engine and only one large online marketplace and only one large social network because we’re short on software developers. We have exactly one of each because of the nature of Silicon Valley, which operates on a winner-take-(almost)-all model. BitCoin, like any technology platform, is hellbent on crushing all competition in its vertical. The network effect means that the market for BitCoin-like cryptocurrencies will converge on a single choice, and that choice is clearly BitCoin.

This doesn’t imply that BitCoin is (or will become) the only game in town in the cryptocurrency space. Other currencies which offer real benefits are effectively in different sub-verticals, and have the potential to thrive and appreciate in value. Ether comes to mind; the Ethereum network offers features far beyond BitCoin’s, and so ETH and BTC can co-exist. 

Unlike Ethereum, DogeCoin does not offer any major advantages over BitCoin, and is in fact less attractive in fundamental ways. Doge does have a faster block time, but remains slower that BitCoin’s Lightning network, which completely negates this putative advantage. Most significantly, DogeCoin has an uncapped (i.e., infinite) supply, which increases at a rate of 10,000 Doge per minute, 14 million Doge per day, and approximately 5 billion Doge per year. This makes it inflationary; in fact, DogeCoin’s inflation rate is roughly 380% that of the U.S. Dollar (even in a year during which the United States saw the worst civil unrest since the New York draft riots of 1863, the worst pandemic since the 1918 Spanish Flu, and the worst economic downturn and unemployment since the Great Depression). This makes DogeCoin less effective as a store of value than the Dollar, which is a far more accessible, convenient, stable, and liquid alternative. DogeCoin also has higher inflation rates than the Euro and other major currencies. Economists have argued that some degree of inflation is desirable as it encourages consumers to spend money rather than save it and watch its value erode over time. This itself is debatable; in an era of soaring consumer and national debt and high loan default rates, a bit more saving and a bit less spending might be advisable. However, even if we agree that inflation is desirable in some abstract sense, this doesn’t mean that consumers want it. Nobody wants to be forced to spend their money as quickly as possible before its value disappears; even those who do spend most of their money shortly after earning it at least appreciate the option of storing value. DogeCoin proponents claim that inflation is a “feature”, but in terms of adoption, it’s a fatal flaw. “Buy into DogeCoin – it has a high inflation rate, and so you will be encouraged to spend your Doge as its value rapidly declines, and that’s great for the economy” is hardly a winning sales pitch. 

DogeCoin is, in a deep sense, the Fyre Festival of investment opportunities, in that its value is driven almost entirely by celebrity promotions. The Elongated Muskrat may not intend to engage in price manipulation, but it is a predictable outcome of his behavior, and he is surely aware of it. In any case, no sane moral philosophy would accept this as an excuse: we are responsible for the predictable outcomes of our actions, even if those outcomes are not explicitly desired. Few of us would be sympathetic to a defendant who stands before a Court of Law and declares: “Your Honor, Ladies and Gentlemen of the Jury – please understand, that while I knew that running that red light would result in the deaths of those pedestrians, I didn’t desire to kill them – that was just a side-effect. What I desired was to shave 5 minutes off my morning commute.” An investment in DogeCoin is, for all intents and purposes, an investment in Elon Musk’s Twitter feed (or, think of it as a Twitter Feed ETF which primarily holds MUSK but also some SNOOP). The Elongated Muskrat and the D-O-Double-G may well be the “smart money”, but those following after them are certainly not. Musk may choose to comment on, or deny, ownership of the Whale Wallet. If he does so, the only proof he can offer will be “trust me, bro”.     

It would be ironic if the most destructive financial fraud of our era began with Shiba Inu memes and liberal use of the Comic Sans typeface.

It would be ironic if a financial vehicle praised by those upset with “the system” turned out to be a scheme for transferring billions of dollars to the richest man on Earth.

It would be ironic if Elon Musk, who has complained about excessive concentration of DogeCoin ownership, was in fact himself responsible for this very problem.

It would be ironic if DogeCoin’s greatest hero turned out to be its greatest villain.

Such twists of fate. And yet:

Disclosure: I do not own any DogeCoin. I am not a financial advisor. This resource does not constitute financial advice, nor Binancial advice, nor a recommendation to buy or sell DogeCoin, BitCoin, soybean futures, or any other financial instrument(s). I believe in good faith that the contents of this resource are accurate, and it has been reviewed by trusted experts. However, I cannot guarantee it to be free of errors, and whenever possible, I have provided the reader with the citations, transaction identifiers, and other information needed to verify my claims. Always do your own research and come to your own conclusions. Do not harass, threaten, or harm any person associated with DogeCoin, nor any person named in this resource. Everyone deserves the benefit of the doubt.

Contact: admin@DogeWhistle.com. Your humble DogeWhistleBlower is located in the UTC+03:00 timezone. Русский Язык, English, Français. Due to the fanaticism of DogeCoin believers, I do not wish to reveal my identity at this time, lest I be hounded by them. There is one exception: I will identify myself to Elon Musk and meet with him if he so wishes, for every man has the right to face his accuser.

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